Is it possible for Ethereum to hit $6,000? This is the opinion of traders

Even with a sluggish market, Ethereum reignites enthusiasm on two prominent prediction platforms. It is not institutional analyses that are driving this; rather, it is thousands of anonymous traders who are putting in millions of dollars into a gamble that is as audacious as it is unforeseen: that ETH will rise to $6,000. This speculative revival, driven by Polymarket and Kalshi, rekindles interest in an asset whose course appeared predetermined. These bets are underpinned by one conviction: the significant moves of Ethereum are still to come, not in the past.

Polymarket: Speculation Stretched Between Surge and Collapse

With Ethereum’s open interest exceeding 20 billion, the crypto expectations on the decentralized platform Polymarket indicate a climate of profound uncertainty.

The crypto market has seen a 24% drop since the start of the year and is currently at 48% of its all-time high, yet some traders still expect a remarkable recovery in the short to medium term.

A widely anticipated prediction by June 30, 2025, includes a volume of $4.58 million, where 25% of bettors are expected to place bets on ETH at $3,000. Another forecasted prediction for December 31, 2025, mobilizes $6.45 million around even more polarized scenarios

The percentages from this second forecast demonstrate a notably wide range of expectations:

38% of traders think ETH might hit $4,000 by the end of the year;
24 % see an increase to $5,000 as possible;
16 % have faith in an increase to $6,000;
16 % set their stakes on a steep decline to $1,000, which represents a highly pessimistic outlook.
This distribution illustrates a profound split in expectations: on one side, bettors are hoping for a bullish rally, while on the other, there are those who fear a collapse. As significant moves are yet to occur, traders maintain their bet.

This demonstrates the common belief that the forthcoming actions, regardless of their direction, could be remarkable. On Polymarket, investors appear to be more captivated by the extent of volatility than by the target price itself.

Kalshi: The Caution of Regulated Markets in 2025 on the Horizon

In contrast to the frenzied speculation on Polymarket, Kalshi—regulated by the CFTC—provides a more considered and long-term perspective on Ethereum’s future. The predictions center around a deadline of December 31, 2025, with probabilities being updated in real time.

The numbers indicate a recent increase in optimism, but it has not yet reached the confidence levels observed on Polymarket. The likelihood of an ETH reaching $4,000 is now estimated at 35%, an increase of 3 points. The $4,500 scenario hits 31%, marking a 7-point rise. On the other hand, just 21% of traders are wagering that Ethereum will hit $5,000 by the end of 2025.

The total volume mobilized by these bets amounts to $321,301, which is considerably less than what is seen on Polymarket. This difference is significant. It could mirror investor profiles that are more cautious, as well as tighter regulations governing bets on Kalshi.

It may also be the case that longer deadlines foster greater restraint, especially given that the current volatility of the market renders any two-year forecast particularly uncertain. In this regard, Kalshi functions more as a gauge of average sentiment than as a speculative guide for the short term.

The difference between the two platforms allows for a nuanced interpretation of Ethereum’s outlook. While Polymarket shows high-intensity speculation that can be nearly binary, Kalshi takes a more measured approach based on a gradual appreciation of the recovery. This divergence prompts a key question: do traders on Kalshi represent a more rational market view, or merely deferred optimism? Regardless, the medium-term outlook is characterized by uncertainty, with no apparent consensus forming.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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