Five-year Bitcoin cycle: How the world’s most popular cryptocurrency’s rhythm changed
There has always been a rhythm to Bitcoin. It paused every four years, took a breath, and then the market blew up. The price increased, demand was fueled by scarcity, and miners’ rewards were reduced by the halving. The inevitable crash followed the euphoria. The idea that Bitcoin operated according to its own natural law was strengthened by the near-mathematical repetition of this cycle.
Now, however, everything is different. The anticipated explosion did not materialize following the 2024 halving. The price increased gradually, lacking the typical surge that once sent the cryptocurrency market into a frenzy. The price is increasing, but in a different way—more gradually and smoothly, and driven by macroeconomic factors rather than cryptocurrency events. Bitcoin has simply matured; it hasn’t lost its cyclicality. Additionally, it appears that its rhythm has changed to five years.
Macroeconomics instead of a calendar
Once, the blockchain’s block calendar set the pace for the entire industry. Today, it’s macroeconomics that does. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index entered expansion territory for the first time in two years — a signal that typically stirs appetite for risk. The money supply is again at record highs, liquidity is searching for yield outside cash and bonds, and increasingly, it finds it in digital assets.
Bitcoin no longer stands apart from global finance — it has become part of it. Crypto ETFs have turned it from an experiment into an instrument. The SEC is now reviewing dozens of new applications — from Solana and XRP to Cardano. Each of them adds legitimacy not just to the market, but to Bitcoin
itself.The market has changed so much that even political disruptions — like the U.S. government shutdown — no longer affect demand structures. Bitcoin has become part of the financial system, and now its price is driven not by the halving calendar, but by macroeconomic cycles.
Institutions and the new market architecture
Bitcoin is slowly shedding its dependence on halvings and integrating deeper into global finance. Institutional investors have become an inseparable part of the ecosystem. ETFs that just a few years ago seemed like fantasy now manage billions of dollars. New funds awaiting approval could ignite the next wave of demand — not speculative, but strategic. Despite its institutionalization, Bitcoin remains an emotional story. Saad Ahmed of Gemini says cycles will never disappear, because they’re driven not by algorithms, but by people.
He believes institutional participation will reduce volatility, but not eliminate it. As long as fear and greed exist, the cycle will continue — only now it stretches further, becoming longer but more stable. In other words, the nature of the market hasn’t changed — only its form. Euphoria has become quieter, corrections less painful. The market no longer looks like a chaotic experiment — it has become a system with memory.Analysts at Glassnode confirm it:
the accumulation phase after the halving lasts longer, growth is slower, and peaks are more extended. Interestingly, today’s market is remarkably calm. The Fear & Greed Index sits around 50 — a rare balance where no one’s shouting about getting rich, but no one’s afraid either. It doesn’t feel like 2021 or 2017 anymore.
Why the cycle has lengthened
In the early years, the halving changed everything. When miners’ rewards were cut in half, the market reacted instantly: less supply, higher prices. But today, Bitcoin’s daily issuance is just a fraction of its total capitalization — no longer enough to create the kind of scarcity that fuels explosive rallies.
Macro cycles replaced it. The global market has been following the rhythm of liquidity since the pandemic: typically every five years, there are periods of monetary tightness followed by expansion. These days, Bitcoin follows the same beat, the beat of world capital.
In addition, institutional investors now think in cycles rather than quarters, which is part of the new market geometry. Trust funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) react to changes slowly and deploy capital over years. Due to its increased size, the market is now more inertial.
And the psychological shift is arguably the most intriguing. Contrary to popular belief, the market became healthier after the 2022 crash because consumers stopped expecting rapid wonders. There is more to the five-year rhythm than just a number. It’s a mature gesture. Bitcoin is no longer a teenager who experiences frequent halving. It now breathes in time with its surroundings and is a part of the larger economic ecosystem.
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