Co-Founder of Ethereum Predicts ETH Will Surpass Global GDP
On June 19, Joseph Lubin—Ethereum co-founder and Consensys CEO—published an X post in which he presented what could be his most extensive valuation thesis for Ether to date. Lubin lauded a research note that compared ETH to “digital oil,” but contended that the author still “is not bullish enough” regarding Ethereum’s eventual economic impact.
“In numerous respects, this is an exceptionally solid piece of work,” he started. “Most likely everyone who goes through this piece will acquire knowledge and be excited by the thesis. However, this high-caliber article has a significant structural defect—quite a serious one: it lacks sufficient bullishness.
Ethereum Could Outscale Global GDP
According to Lubin, Ether will serve as the foundation for a “hybrid human-machine intelligence society” that generates value on a scale that far exceeds the current $113.8 trillion global economy. “It is not a great leap,” he wrote, “to propose that the value present on and circulating through Ethereum, which will form a substantial part of Web3—the re-decentralised—will be orders of magnitude greater than today’s global GDP. Simply observe the exponential growth of expenses related to energy, chips, and data centers, as well as how AI is speeding everything up.
He brought back the longstanding Bitcoin-versus-Ethereum dichotomy—BTC as “Gold 2.0” and ETH as the native asset of a programmable economy—but extended it further. Lubin reiterated, “While BTC should be considered Gold 2.0, ETH should be valued within the context of the emerging decentralized global economy.” He stated that this framing must be broadened to encompass an AI-fueled surge in digital activity that will “grow largely on decentralised rails.”
Half of Lubin’s post was dedicated to a thought experiment that was initially outlined on June 4. “If there existed a magical trust-diamond commodity that you could apply to every transaction, agreement, or relationship … how much value would that add? 10% of the global GDP? 1 00 %? 1 0 00 %?
In his view, Ethereum’s unusually decentralised validator set makes Ether “the highest-grade or gold standard of trust on the planet.” That “trust commodity” premium, layered atop the “digital-oil” demand for transaction fees, is what Lubin believes can propel ETH’s fully diluted value far beyond any historical asset benchmark.
Reality Check—Today’s Numbers
At present, the difference between aspiration and market capitalization is still vast. On June 19, Ether’s float of approximately 120 million coins, priced at $2,525 each, resulted in a network market value close to $307 billion, accounting for under 0.3% of global output. However, even that float is decreasing: over 35 million ETH—approximately 29% of the supply—is currently locked in proof-of-stake contracts, marking a record high reached this week.
Lubin sees this kind of tightening on the supply side as a preview rather than a climax. He noted regarding the digital-oil and trust-commodity frameworks, “Both of these models will lead to a giant monetary premium for ETH.”
It is still uncertain whether Ether can realistically “eclipse” global output—a benchmark that no individual asset has approached. Lubin’s rhetorical diamond sharpens the stakes: in a future where programmable trust is a primary production input, valuing ETH solely as software gas may be “not bullish enough,” to borrow his phrase.
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