Ethereum price forecast: ETF inflows and technical breakouts drive momentum as ETH breaks $4,397
Ethereum extended gains on Thursday, trading at $4,397 after breaking above a critical descending trendline that had capped price since mid September. The breakout from a falling wedge pattern pushed ETH firmly above the $4,280 resistance, which now acts as support.
With the 20-day EMA above the 50-day EMA to validate short-term bullish alignment, the move puts ETH above all significant moving averages. Although momentum remains strong, the Relative Strength Index has increased to 74, indicating overbought conditions. Resistance is located between $4,450 and $4,500, with $4,650 following if momentum picks up speed. Immediate support is located between $4,210 and $4,235.
Derivatives data shows traders pressing longs
The strength of the rally was emphasized by derivatives activity. While daily trading volume increased 34% to $89.98 billion, futures open interest increased 7.2 percent to $58.56 billion. The volume of options trading also increased by 71%, suggesting that traders are bracing for further volatility.
On all major exchanges, the long and short ratios were very positive. Top traders were positioned over 2.1 on Binance, which had ratios ranging from 1.7 to 1.9. ; in the last day, $129 million has been liquidated. Strong demand for longs without excessive leverage risk is indicated by the moderately favorable funding rates that are still in place.
ETF inflows reassert institutional demand
Rekindled interest in Ethereum due to U.S. spot ETFs has been a key factor in its rise. The last two days saw $674 million in net inflows, notably $127.5 million in the last day, following a week of consistent outflows. These inflows support Ethereum’s position as a key institutional asset alongside Bitcoin and reflect direct demand for spot ETH.
Ethereum has two tailwinds thanks to the timing of this inflow reversal and a clear breakout on the charts: institutional fundamental demand and technical bullish confirmation.
Outlook
The short-term outlook for Ethereum is still positive if support stays above $4,280. The next medium-term target is $4,800; a sustained closure over $4,400 would validate momentum toward $4,500 and $4,650. A decline to $4,210–$4,235 is possible if the breakthrough zone is not maintained, with the 100-day EMA offering more robust protection.
We previously observed Ethereum’s tenacity in the $4,000 range, which was bolstered by institutional positioning and exchange outflows. The most recent spike, driven by technical confirmation and ETF inflows, supports that story and turns attention to whether ETH can maintain trading above $4,400 to retest the highs of September.
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