Global M2 Surges: Could Bitcoin Be Next to Set a New Record?

Market analysts are forecasting a potential surge in Bitcoin’s price, citing a sharp rise in global M2 money supply as a key driver. Despite recent price fluctuations, the broader macroeconomic trend suggests Bitcoin could soon follow global liquidity to new all-time highs.

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Bitcoin Price Dips, But Macro Trends Remain Bullish

As of the latest market data, Bitcoin is trading at $115,308, marking a 2.2% daily drop and a 4.3% decline over the past week. While this short-term weakness may concern some traders, analysts remain focused on the bigger picture—global M2 liquidity has just reached a record high.

Global M2, which includes cash, checking deposits, and savings balances across major economies, acts as a broad gauge of worldwide monetary expansion. When this liquidity expands, risk assets like Bitcoin have historically surged in response.

Bitcoin and Global M2: A Strong Historical Correlation

Analysts point to a well-established pattern linking Bitcoin’s price movements with global M2 trends. A chart tracking both metrics from 2012 through mid-2025 reveals a consistent relationship: Bitcoin tends to rise when global liquidity grows and falls during contractions.

Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, has long emphasized this connection. He estimates that up to 90% of Bitcoin’s price movement is driven by global liquidity conditions. Major bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all followed significant increases in M2—and current trends suggest history may be repeating in 2024–2025.

July 2025: New Liquidity Record Sets the Stage

On July 23, 2025, global M2 climbed to an all-time high of $95.2 trillion, surpassing previous peaks. Although Bitcoin hasn’t yet matched its own record highs, its historical pattern of trailing liquidity movements hints that a significant price move could be on the horizon.

This lag isn’t unusual. After the COVID-19 liquidity surge in 2020, Bitcoin took months to react, eventually peaking above $64,000 in early 2021. Similarly, recent gains in global M2 began in late 2023, and Bitcoin responded with a strong rally throughout early 2024. Despite current dips, the broader uptrend remains intact.

Experts See Bitcoin Above $200,000 This Year

Industry leaders and financial institutions are increasingly bullish:

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, predicts Bitcoin could hit $180,000 to $200,000 in 2025.
HC Wainwright, a New York-based investment firm, has set a year-end price target of $225,000, citing historical cycles.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat believes Bitcoin could reach $250,000, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Looking further ahead, Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, has projected a long-term Bitcoin price of $13 million by 2045, based on supply scarcity and global adoption trends.

Final Thoughts: A Macro-Driven Bitcoin Rally?

While Bitcoin’s recent decline may reflect short-term volatility or profit-taking, the broader macro landscape appears supportive. With global M2 liquidity at an all-time high, analysts see strong potential for Bitcoin to follow suit—possibly surpassing the recent record of $123,000 and heading toward new, unprecedented highs.

As monetary conditions continue to loosen and investor confidence builds, Bitcoin may once again prove itself a beneficiary of expanding global liquidity

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