Karol Nawrocki Wins Polish Presidency, Challenging Centrist Government’s Agenda

In a tightly contested runoff election, Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist aligned with Poland’s former ruling party Law and Justice, has narrowly won the presidency, dealing a major political setback to centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Official results released Monday confirmed Nawrocki secured 50.9% of the vote, edging out liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.1%.

Karol Nawrocki, a historian and former boxer, was strongly backed by conservative forces both in Poland and abroad. Former U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed him and hosted Nawrocki at the Oval Office in May, posing for a photo with a thumbs-up. The win adds fresh momentum to right-wing populist movements in Europe, just weeks after a nationalist defeat in neighboring Romania had sparked optimism among centrists.

The vote has left Poland politically polarized, with Nawrocki’s presidency now positioned in opposition to Tusk’s government. While both sides support arming Ukraine and strengthening the Polish military, they clash on nearly all domestic issues, including abortion rights and judicial independence.

The presidency in Poland, while lacking direct control over policy or the economy, holds the power to veto legislation—an authority that can severely hinder the government’s agenda. This dynamic played out during the tenure of outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a Law and Justice ally who frequently blocked laws passed by Tusk’s coalition. Duda was ineligible to run again due to term limits.

With Nawrocki succeeding Duda, the political gridlock is expected to continue, if not intensify. Tusk’s government, a diverse coalition of liberal, leftist, and moderate conservative parties, holds a parliamentary majority but lacks the three-fifths needed to override presidential vetoes.

The recent election was seen as a key test for Europe’s populist wave.Karol Nawrocki’s victory—fueled in part by the consolidation of far-right voters from the first round—dashes liberal hopes of reversing that trend in Poland. It also complicates relations with the European Union, where Tusk has long been viewed as a staunchly pro-European figure.

Karol Nawrocki’s campaign received vocal international support, particularly during the recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held near Rzeszów, Poland—the first CPAC event hosted in the country. Former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem used her appearance there to urge Polish voters to reject Trzaskowski, labeling him a “socialist” and “a train wreck of a leader.”

Now sworn in as president, Nawrocki is expected to continue the obstructionist stance of his predecessor, particularly on efforts to reform the judiciary—a key point of tension between Warsaw and Brussels.