VanEck Matthew Sigel Warns of Capital Erosion Risks in Bitcoin-Heavy Corporate Treasuries
June 16, 2025— Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, has issued a cautionary note regarding Bitcoin-focused public companies that use aggressive capital-raising strategies to expand their BTC holdings. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Sigel warned that as some firms approach or trade near their Bitcoin Net Asset Value (NAV), continued equity issuance could lead to capital erosion, not formation.
“No public BTC treasury company has traded below its Bitcoin NAV for a sustained period,” Sigel stated. “But at least one is now approaching parity.” He emphasized that at-the-market (ATM) programs used to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases risk diluting shareholder value if the company’s stock trades at or near NAV.
To mitigate these risks, Sigel proposed several safeguards:
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Pause ATM issuance if the stock price falls below 0.95x NAV for 10+ trading days.
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Prioritize share buybacks when BTC appreciates but the stock price does not reflect that gain.
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Launch a strategic review if the NAV discount persists—considering options such as mergers, spinoffs, or discontinuation of the Bitcoin treasury strategy.
Sigel also criticized executive compensation practices in such firms, urging that pay be linked to NAV per share growth, not just Bitcoin accumulation or share count expansion.
“Once you’re trading at NAV, shareholder dilution is no longer strategic—it’s extractive,” he cautioned, urging boards and shareholders to act with discipline before options run out.
Sigel’s remarks come as scrutiny increases around crypto-heavy corporate balance sheets and the sustainability of such strategies during market corrections.
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